Short-term Positives Have Passed, Rubber Prices Have Fallen

- Apr 11, 2019-

The Tokyo morning exchange RSS1909 contract opened at 188.4 yen, up 0.8 yen from the previous trading day. The TSR1910 contract opened at 170.7 yen, unchanged from the previous trading day. The USD/JPY exchange rate was around 111.065 in the morning.


Yesterday's Tokyo rubber market, in the Shanghai futures market chemical sector more than a single closed position, the RSS long-term contract opened in early trading once stood 190 yen and then with Shanghai rubber fell back. At the same time, due to the strong spot price, the support near the short-term 187 yen still exists. The Songkran Festival in Thailand is just around the corner, and the spot market will usher in the last moment. The recent increase in rain weather in Thailand has alleviated concerns about delays in opening and cutting and insufficient glue. It is expected that spot prices will be significantly reduced after mid-April. The near-distance monthly spread of Tokyo RSS has narrowed, and the TSR market's near-month contract spread deficit shows that it is not far from the mid- and long-term market reversal.


In terms of spot, the April FOB price of No. 3 tobacco on April 9 was around 55.61 baht, up 0.3 baht from the previous trading day. The No. 20 standard rubber FOB price in April was around 48.75 baht, up 0.18 baht from the previous trading day. The USS spot price was around 47 baht, unchanged from the previous trading day.


From a technical point of view, the RSS far-month price has formed a short-term ups and downs in the cloud, which is basically half of the increase in support from the previous 182 yen. As this rebound is more rapid, and did not touch the 194 yen line shown in the medium-term baseline, as the lower limit of the cloud level moves up, whether the price entity can successfully rush out of the cloud is the main point of view in the next week. From the trend of this week, the support of the 188 yen is a very important support price in the near future. The long and short competition will be more intense.


The spread between the 1909 month contract and the Shanghai 1909 month contract (Tokyo-Shanghai) at the close of Tokyo on April 9 was -52 USD/ton.