It is expected that in the second half of 2019, the natural rubber market will continue to be weak and volatile;
But compared with 2018, the center of gravity of prices may move up slightly.
On the one hand, the destocking effect in the domestic market was significant from may to June, and the inventory pressure in tianjiao market was significantly alleviated compared with that in 2018.
On the other hand, the rubber market arbitrage profit narrowed significantly, arbitrage disk extrusion effect is obvious, tianjiao market short suppression is also weakened.
Specifically, in terms of supply, in the early stage of 2019, natural rubber production areas at home and abroad were affected by high temperature and dry climate, resulting in insufficient glue production and damaged rubber trees. The supply is expected to resume after July.
And with the mixed glue incident gradually clear, overseas processing plants will also take the corresponding response policy to resume exports to China.
In particular, the fourth quarter of the rubber season, so the second half of the natural rubber market supply abundant.
In terms of demand, the downstream demand of natural rubber is flat in 2019. "gold, nine and silver, ten" is the peak season for relative demand. It is expected that the demand may recover from late August, which is expected to boost the rubber market in August and September.
However, the current macro environment long and short factors coexist, should pay attention to macro news can make the commodity market rebound.